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The Bradshaw Scale

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wallyworld View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wallyworld Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12/19/06 at 7:44pm
I'm afraid that here's what's gonna' happen.  We'll end up with a formula that's so complex that very few A.D.s will bother with it OR absolutely nothing changes!  I think that McSanta was onto something at the beginning of this thread!

Originally posted by McSanta McSanta wrote:

How about doubling up the length past 15 feet.

L1 = length up to 15'  (is =15 if the caber is greater than 15 feet)
L2 = length past 15' 

L2 = 0           ;           ;      If total Caber length is less than 15 ft
L2 = Total Length -15      If total Caber length is greater than 15 ft 

W=weight        &nbs p;   T=Taper factor

Old Formula = (L1 + L2)  X W X T X 0.55
New Formula = (L1 + X L2) X W X T X 0.55

That would move Waynes Caber from 788 to 960

Length

Weight

Taper

muliplier

New

old

Difference

19.17

85

0.88

0.55

959.9

788.5

171.4

18

85

0.88

0.55

863.9

740.5

123.4

17

85

0.88

0.55

781.7

699.4

82.3

16

85

0.88

0.55

699.4

658.2

41.1

15

85

0.88

0.55

617.1

617.1

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30

100

0.88

0.55

2178.0

1452

726

10

300

0.88

0.55

1452.0

1452

0


Don't forget what the original goal was.  A simple tool to use to determine the difficulty of turning one caber as opposed to another caber.  Not what it takes to launch it into orbit.  Maybe the multiplier should not be "2," it could be as low as 1.01 or an amount higher than 2.  Just start with a reasonable number.

This is certainly not without precedence!  RMSA has tinkered with the formula since its conception.  They've changed the multiplier and the scoring points in an attempt to make it more workable.

Remember what Einstein said, "Keep it simple, but not too simple!"
"TRY NOT. DO OR DO NOT. THERE IS NO 'TRY'."   Yoda
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote McSanta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12/21/06 at 10:10am

There seems to be agreement that the Bradshaw formula captures the elements that should be used to rate/rank a caber.  

We also seem to agree that the formula does not give enough weight to those with longer cabers or to much weight with those with shorter cabers, so I suggested in the earlier post a simple way to adjust the Bradshaw formula.  As it was pointed out, the parameter or factor I used is probably not correct (since I pulled it out of the air).   As a trained statistician, I would love to have data to fit a model to. The problem is what data should I be using?

Originally posted by Wayne Hill Wayne Hill wrote:

  • People who really want to help should do the following:
    Rate your cabers using the Bradshaw scale, but keep track of the particulars (length, weight, balance point).
  • Compare cabers of similar ratings that have different lengths and weights.  Figure out which one is easier for people to turn.

I will take Waynes idea one step further:

  • Keep track of the parameters of each of your cabers (weight, length, distance to center of gravity),
  • Note what people think is harder and easier to turn
  • the class the caber is used in
  • keep track of the number of attempts made to turn the caber and the number of successes though out the year. (should success be a turn or a 12:00 turn?) 

Either do this retroactively from last year's score sheets or make an effort to do it in the up coming season. 

At the end of the season, use this information to rank the cabers from easiest to hardest to turn in each class by a measure  = successes divided by attempts. 

From this point, we modify the Bradshaw formula in a manner that produces a score that with luck will closely reflect the rankings.

 



Edited by McSanta
Mark McVey

"The work of science is to substitute facts for appearances and demonstrations for impressions." -John Ruskin
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